NDCMP Weather Forecast

District 1District 2
Transition (UTC)012012
FirstSecondThirdFirstSecondThird
Forecasted WeatherNO SIGNO SIGNO SIGNO SIGNO SIGNO SIG

Forecaster: Ajay Kanteti

Synopsis


A particularly pleasant day in store for both districts. A cold front currently attempting to exit W ND will keep it from getting too hot even at the peak of afternoon heating & more or less nuke any chances of storms. The surface low pressure that dragged this cold front SE across the area overnight has moved quickly SE of ND & a local high pressure will set in it's wake by late night & strengthen as the morning goes on. A relatively zonal pattern continues in the upper levels, with a weak trough attempting to lift to the NE in W MT into morning after interacting with the strong four corners ridge in place across the regional Southwest. The near complete lack of CAPE & weak capping in place will keep any sort of pop corn shower development in D2 from materializing. Marginal CAPE & medicore dewpoints would likely be enough to produce at least a few showers in D1 if forcing were present but lack of forcing seems to be the story for D1 today as no large scale forcing exists with passing of the cold front. A few mid level shortwave impulses are forecast to pass far south of D1 throughout the late afternoon into evening but nothing close enough to trigger showers. Into evening & early morning, stronger capping sets in & no chance for significant weather for either district is expected.

D1... Clear skies throughout the afternoon with highs making it into the low 80's. Winds will remain from the NNW during the day but shift to NNE into the evening & morning. No significant weather expected.

D2... Mostly sunny with a fair weather cumulus field potentially building in as the afternoon goes on & temperatures making it into the upper 70's. Winds also remaining from the NNW during the day but shifting to NNE during the evening into morning. No significant weather expected.

7/23/22


Flash Flood Guidance (Click Image for 1hr, 3hr, & 6hr Graphics)

200 mb 0z

500 mb 0z

Surface Temperatures 21z

Surface Dewpoints 21z

Surface Theta E values 21z

HRRR sounding for D2 21z

HRRR sounding for Bowman 21z

WPC surface analysis 0z


Indices


Lifted Index
(<1)
K index
(>30)
Total Totals
(>48)
Sweat
(>200)
Cape
(>125)
CIN
(>-100)
Bulk Richarson Number
(>3)
Helicity
(>125)
D1 0.2 30.9 49.2 154 47 -58 0 39
ISN 2.8 31.8 45 143 2 -5 0 42
MOT 4 20.2 42.7 164 2 -7 0 39

Jefferson Index
(>28.5)
Cross Totals
(>18.65)
Thompson Index
(>28.5)
S Index
(>35.8)
Showalter Index
(<=0.5)
Cap Strength
(0-2.65°C)
D1 29 18.9 30.7 41.8 0 1.1
ISN 30 18.2 29 43.5 2.9 0.2
MOT 24 18.9 16.2 29.5 4 0.3

Weather Features

  • Cold Front
  • Surface High Pressure
  • Surface Low
  • Upper Level Ridge