NDCMP Weather Forecast

	District 1					District 2
Transition (UTC)		0		5			0		5
	First		Second		Third	First		Second		Third
Forecasted Weather	NO SIG		NO SIG		HAIL	NO SIG		NO SIG		HAIL

Forecaster: Daniel Brothers

Synopsis

An upper level ridge is trying to build to the west today. Despite this ridge developing other ingredients are coming together for thunderstorms overnight and for the next couple days. A SE surface flow is helping to maintain dew points in the mid to upper 50s over much of western ND. Some fog is very slowly burning off over the districts today and will help to limit daytime heating, but highs could still be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. There is some decent instability of D! during the day, but it remains somewhat capped and without any forcing mechanism to break through that cap. Thus there will be no significant weather during the day for either district.

However, a potent shortwave moving over the ridge is expected to force thunderstorms over central MT this afternoon. These storms will move fairly quickly across MT and into ND overnight, and should be able to maintain some hail threat with the aid of a LLJ and an axis of MUCAPE stretching across D1. The HRRR and UND WRF have these storms reaching ND between 05Z and 06Z. The NAM Nest is a couple hours later, but transition times will reflect the earlier timing. Another more potent wave moves through ND in the evening tomorrow, bringing another round of potential hail suppression operations.