NDCMP Weather Forecast

	District 1					District 2
Transition (UTC)		23		12			23		12
	First		Second		Third	First		Second		Third
Forecasted Weather	NO SIG		HAIL		TSRA	NO SIG		TSRA		NO SIG

Forecaster: Parker Alvstad

Synopsis

Convection across D1 tonight may contain some HAIL. Less favorable forcing and little influence from the low-level jet keeps the D2 forecast at TSRA overnight.

Currently, North Dakota is experiencing northwest flow aloft on the east side of a ridge. This ridge flattens out slightly, and ejects a small shortwave trough this evening. This trough will enter North Dakota around 0z, Enhancing upper level flow and vorticity overnight into Friday morning. Down below, both an 850 mb high and a surface high reside in the Midwest. With a decent pressure gradient in place, a subtle low level jet will reach D1 overnight. Winds will veer with height, especially south. Dew points will fluctuate between mid 50s and low 60s in D1, while remaining constant around 60 in D2 (some portions of McKenzie and Williams county may be lower. Mountrail County will have higher dew points). Capping will start to break down by 18z, and both districts will see pockets of 1000 J/kg or greater CAPE in an uncapped environment this afternoon. CAPE lingers throughout the forecast period but capping comes into play after 3z again with surface cooling.

D1: Though the environment is uncapped this afternoon, proper forcing to create convection is still off to the west. Because of this, NO SIG is expected throughout the afternoon. After 23z, a shortwave energy begins to influence the environment. This will steepen mid-level lapse rates and increase vorticity. In addition, a subtle low level jet will reach the district, further enhancing potential development. Though convective initiation will occur well off to the west, sustained convection will pose a marginal HAIL threat overnight. A couple models are also hinting at convective initiation further east, potentially east of the district. Nonetheless, the environment between 23z-12z is capable of marginal hail. Some TSRA may linger in the region after 12z, however the low level jet subsides as the surface begins heating again. In addition, capping will be too much until surface heating maximizes again tomorrow afternoon.

D2: Similar to D1, NO SIG is expected until 23z as forcing remains to the west. D2 will not see as favorable conditions for convection compared to D1. The low level jet will not reach north enough to influence convection. In addition, maximum trough energy remains south, keeping mid-level lapse rates and vorticity lower. There should be enough forcing for some TSRA, but this will not be strong enough for hail. Timing is similar to D1 in that 12z marks another transition as the trough begins to move southeast. Capping will prevent any convection forming though, returning the forecast to NO SIG until Friday afternoon.