NDCMP Weather Forecast

	District 1					District 2
Transition (UTC)		20		1			20		2
	First		Second		Third	First		Second		Third
Forecasted Weather	NO SIG		HAIL		NO SIG	NO SIG		HAIL		NO SIG

Forecaster: Joseph Russell

Synopsis

A slightly more exciting forecast today with the chance for hail across both districts and general odds of operations being much higher

Our overall pattern is still dominated by this stagnant flow aloft, thanks to the lack of any long wave troughs, itll be difficult to push that out of the area. Despite this, the overall flow is consistently favorable for rounds of weather as weak shortwaves will continue to travel along that upper-level jet. At the surface a high-pressure developed across the project area and has shifted east, This small feature is why today looks to be the best odds for operations we've had in awhile, as that southeasterly flow around it allowed more moisture and generally better parameters to shift into the area. This, paired with a well-timed and fairly strong shortwave (when compared to the previous few) will make for a fairly decent shot at scattered thunderstorms, all of which may pose a hail threat. The best forcing associated with the shortwave is the vort max that will advect into southwest ND, ahead of it MUCAPE values will approach 1500 j/kg which is a massive jump compared to yesterdays average of 50 j/kg. The overall profile has cooled slightly making sustained convection more likely, and making the production of hail easier for any of those sustained thunderstorms. Shear is weak, but sufficient for maintenance, so today will not be one of those pulse/popcorn style thunderstorm days. What forms will likely continue to grow and develop eventually making its way into a cluster as it moved into central ND.�

D2: This likely wont be an entire district affair, as the forcing is going to primarily be to the south. That being said, I do expect thunderstorms to develop in the southern half of the district and move east. The overall parameter space is a bit less "storm friendly" here with slightly warmer low-level temps and lower CAPE values but I do think the favorable laspe rates and wind profile will be sufficient for a few of these TSRA to contain a hail threat, especially across McKenzie and southern Mountrail counties. On the northern half of the district, there are some more questions on whether storms will be able to convect as capping is quite a bit stronger than compared to the southern part of the district and significantly stronger than D1. One important thing to note is that LCL heights will be fairly high across districts, and models are consistent that they will only slightly fall. HRRR is maintaining 3km AGL bases, or roughly 10,000 feet, so seeding operations may be difficult. Once storms exit this afternoon, sinking air will settle in, and things should clear up fairly quickly.�

D1: Here things are a bit more involved. Forcing is better here, as the vort max will advect across district providing a fair amount of lift needed to initiate thunderstorms. There is some questions involved with timing of initiation as models are indicating some showers kicking off before the best parameter space arrives, and those may briefly tame the atmosphere until the best forcing is nearly out of district. All of that to say, storms could either develop on the western border and track across district or well see some showers early on and then development may hold off an hour or two and then go up over central or eastern Bowman/Slope counties making operations difficult. CAPE is more than sufficient to see rapid development, when things go up they may go up big and fast so itll be important to be ready to go at the drop of a pin. A similar story to D2, bases will start out very high and difficult to work with models maintaining upwards of 10,000 foot bases. The primary difference here is that bases are anticipated to decrease as the storms establish themselves and move east. Just like D2, once storms exit to the east sinking air in the mid-level will move in and things will clear out quickly with no development expected overnight.